Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are hovering near UNCH this morning after closing the Tuesday session steady to fractionally mixed. As of Monday night, the average cash corn price in the US was $3.08 1/4 just 2 cents below last year with slower exports and larger carryover. The national basis was at -36 3/4 cents, 2 3/4 stronger than a year ago. Safras & Mercado estimates that 61% of Brazil’s 2017 second corn crop has been sold by producers, compared to 83.3% in the same timeframe last year. The 2017/18 first crop plantings (about 82% done) may only cover 3.85 mHA vs 5.3 mHA last year.

Soybean futures are currently 4 cents higher after being marginally to 1 1/2 cents lower on Tuesday. December meal was down $1.50/ton, with nearby bean oil 22 points higher. Rainfall covering most of Brazil put a little pressure on the market, giving moisture to the beans already in the ground. The USDA announced a private export sale of 130,000 MT of Soybeans to China for 17/18 delivery. The national average cash price was at $9.14 on Monday evening, as the national average basis was at -76 cents.

Wheat futures are fractionally higher in all three markets this morning. They settled Tuesday with most CBT and KC contracts 2 to 4 1/2 cents higher, as MPLS was fractionally to 1 1/2 cents higher. Lower crop ratings could have been supportive, although there is little correlation with final yield at this point. Individual state data shows the winter wheat crop in KS at 90% emerged vs. the average of 95%, as OK was also at 90% compared to the average of 92%. Most SRW states are even with or above the average for crop emergence. Showers across parts of Australia over the weekend slowed the winter wheat harvest there. With Russia suspending imports of Brazilian beef, we find it unlikely that Brazil will import Russian wheat as previously rumored.

Live cattle futures managed gains of 87.5 cents to $1.30 on Turnaround Tuesday. Feeder cattle futures were also higher, with nearby up Jan $2.075. The CME feeder cattle index on November 20 was down 20 cents to $156.71. Wholesale beef prices were higher on Tuesday afternoon. Choice was up $2.45 at $208.63, with select boxes 60 cents higher at $188.65. USDA indicated FI cattle slaughter at 240,000 head through Tuesday, 5,000 larger than a week ago and 8,000 above the same week in 2016. There were cash sales of $118 reported on Tuesday with a few in KS rumored around $119.50. Today’s FCE electronic auction will show 955 head for sale.

Lean hog futures were steady in the back months to $1.525 lower in the nearby contracts on Tuesday. The CME Lean Hog Index for 11/17 was down 59 cents to $64.83. The national base hog average price was 13 cents higher at $56.59 yesterday afternoon. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $1.40 lower at $80.87 in the Tuesday afternoon report. The picnic and belly were the only cuts reported higher, as the loin was down $4.08. The weekly USDA AMS hog slaughter report showed 924,000 through Tuesday. That is down 5,000 from the previous week but 33,000 more than the same week in 2016.

Cotton futures are currently 27 to 42 points higher. They finished the Turnaround Tuesday session with losses of 31 to 71 points in most contracts. Harvest data from TX shows 67% of the crop is harvested, improving well over the average of 60%, as GA is 78% complete vs. the average of 74%. Online cash cotton sales reported by The Seam increased to 29,988 bales, with prices improving 156 points to 68.84 cents/lb. The Monday futures rally triggered some movement. The Cotlook A index for November 20 was 25 points higher to 80.05 cents/lb. The biweekly Cotton Ginnings report will be released Friday morning at 11:00 a.m. CST. In addition, the weekly Export Sales report will be delayed until Friday morning at 7:30 a.m. CST due to the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

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